Questions About The New League Structure

[dode]

I see more trend than probabilities and am still suspicious about cyanide dices.

"I see" is pretty much the definition of confirmation bias.  Do an actual analysis (plenty have been done already, including taking the RNG apart in memory, examining it and reforming it in the shape of the old BBOracle dice predictor) of a large number of dice rolls and what you'll see that the RNG is one of the things they didn't screw up.

[JRCO]

You can be suspicious all you want, but it's the one thing they didn't create themselves

 

If the random generator works well (which I do not contest) but the dices are not fairly distributed as it happens quite often (1 player with mainly the Pow and 6, and another mainly with blue arrows, skulls and 1s), then there will be a bias.

 

And I mantained this bias does exist which is what I called trend in "cyanide dices" we witness often in games and can recollect in BBM.

 

But Maybe I am wrong too. Cause your argumentations makes sense.

 

I just wouldn't be as categoric as you are in defending the fairness of "cyanide dices" distribution amongst players.

[Pidpad]

I thought that Donk was the stupidest troll there ever was. Turns out he failed less really stupids than average after I checked his lifetime stats.

 

 

Also, remember that once a team is down in numbers the other team has a (way) easier time of getting good blocks in.

[dode]

If the random generator works well (which I do not contest) but the dices are not fairly distributed as it happens quite often (1 player with mainly the Pow and 6, and another mainly with blue arrows, skulls and 1s), then there will be a bias.

 

And I mantained this bias does exist which is what I called trend in "cyanide dices" we witness often in games and can recollect in BBM.

 

But Maybe I am wrong too. Cause your argumentations makes sense.

 

I just wouldn't be as categoric as you are in defending the fairness of "cyanide dices" distribution amongst players.

The problem is your assumption that the dice will even out over the course of a match, and the variance is high enough that there are good odds it will not. It's down to the "law of large numbers" again: you roll maybe 100 dice in a match, and 100 simply isn't that big.

[JRCO]

The problem is your assumption that the dice will even out over the course of a match, and the variance is high enough that there are good odds it will not. It's down to the "law of large numbers" again: you roll maybe 100 dice in a match, and 100 simply isn't that big.

 well I am a lawyer not a mathematician so I will trust you on this one.

 

Let's hope saturday's game will prove me wrong and suddenly see me breacking some elves AV 

[dode]

There's timing to consider, too. It's entirely possible to roll exactly the same dice as the other person but lose horribly because your 1s and skulls came together while his were seperate and he was able to reroll.

[Javelin]

There's timing to consider, too. It's entirely possible to roll exactly the same dice as the other person but lose horribly because your 1s and skulls came together while his were seperate and he was able to reroll.

 

Exactly.  The timing of the bad rolls is far more important than how many bad rolls you have...  Which adds to the variance even more.