dode Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I would disagree that it is high ag teams that win, it is more the high MV (there have been two four Lizard winners after all). It just happens that many of the teams with high ag also have high mv.I'm not entirely sure that saying "Not X, Y. Oh, and Y = X, btw" is actually disagreement If it was 2 points for a win, 1 for a draw, or there were end of season playoffs then it would help the bashy teams win.Well that's pretty much identical to win% calculation (1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, 0 for a loss), and LARGE numbers of stats for win% for TV above 1700 (i.e. developed) from FUMBBL show the top 4 teams to be the elven teams and the 5th to be skaven...Overall (i.e. including large numbers of low TV teams) Amazons run away with it, with a win% almost 5% greater than the second placed team. As for OCC, based on stats taken from BBManager, the win percentages looked like this towards the end of last season (stats are from about S4 - whenever we started using BBM): The green dashes are the means for OCC so far, and the lines represent where the true win% for the race is 95% likely to fall as OCC plays more and more games - basically, you can't say what the win% for the race is apart from "I'm 95% sure that it's on the black line". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
jbecks Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Quite surprised about skaven, I would have thought skaven would have had a higher win percentage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Dorfking Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm not entirely sure that saying "Not X, Y. Oh, and Y = X, btw" is actually disagreement Well that's pretty much identical to win% calculation (1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, 0 for a loss), and LARGE numbers of stats for win% for TV above 1700 (i.e. developed) from FUMBBL show the top 4 teams to be the elven teams and the 5th to be skaven... Overall (i.e. including large numbers of low TV teams) Amazons run away with it, with a win% almost 5% greater than the second placed team. As for OCC, based on stats taken from BBManager, the win percentages looked like this towards the end of last season (stats are from about S4 - whenever we started using BBM): The green dashes are the means for OCC so far, and the lines represent where the true win% for the race is 95% likely to fall as OCC plays more and more games - basically, you can't say what the win% for the race is apart from "I'm 95% sure that it's on the black line". Love this stat table! Mmm mm, gona highten that norse % mohahahahahaor die trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hobnail Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yuk. Number crunching ruins Blood Bowl!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards 5
Gallows Bait Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Skaven I suspect have suffered a lot from people not being willing to stick with them, but I agree they're not where I expected them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baalz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The whole place just stinks of fear. AV7 is where its at! I smell something Oldman. Can you say stunty //Baalz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dode Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Quite surprised about skaven, I would have thought skaven would have had a higher win percentage It's worth pointing out that since there are 23 teams and I am only 95% confident then one of them is likely to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Hobnail Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hmm....what is the chance of them all being wrong......brb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards 5
Etheric Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm not entirely sure that saying "Not X, Y. Oh, and Y = X, btw" is actually disagreement But I didn't say Y=X, I said Y=X+A With A being Lizards and possibly Skaven. Does 4 agi 4 players make a team an AGI team? They are definately a speed team though. Don't think anyone would call lizards an agility team. Will be interesting to see where chaos dwarves end up, a bull centaur can run the length of the pitch in 3 turns with only a bit of luck. Well that's pretty much identical to win% calculation (1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, 0 for a loss), and LARGE numbers of stats for win% for TV above 1700 (i.e. developed) from FUMBBL show the top 4 teams to be the elven teams and the 5th to be skaven... Overall (i.e. including large numbers of low TV teams) Amazons run away with it, with a win% almost 5% greater than the second placed team. As for OCC, based on stats taken from BBManager, the win percentages looked like this towards the end of last season (stats are from about S4 - whenever we started using BBM): The green dashes are the means for OCC so far, and the lines represent where the true win% for the race is 95% likely to fall as OCC plays more and more games - basically, you can't say what the win% for the race is apart from "I'm 95% sure that it's on the black line". Yes now do the same graph for points per game. For 2 for a win that is double the above, for 3 points for a win it is something different. My conjecture is that Orcs, Chaos and Nurgle are ranked better at 2 points per game. How much better who knows, which is why the data is interesting. I just said better. Another graph that would be fun would be the average TV difference for the teams matchups. You would expect chaos, orcs, nurgle to be constant overdogs as they maintain TV better. Which makes it interesting that if they have been on average overdogs, then the poor overall win% looks even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakerbeef Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Love this stat table! Mmm mm, gona highten that norse % mohahahahahaor die trying I think you'll find you'll be referring to the latter part of that in a few seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dode Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Way, way ahead of you - I was asked to compare the systems a long time ago which is why I had the chart to hand, which I update semi-regularly Chart comparing "Win%" and "Points per game" for each team thus far in OCC: As you can see looking at the "rankings" columns, it makes very little difference. UD and Lizards swap, CD and Elves swap, Khemri and WE swap, Skaven and Dwarves swap. Nobody moves more than one place though. It's worth noting that all of Lizards, Elves, WE and Skaven do a little better under the points system rather than the win% system, but not by much at all, and mainly because they draw less than other teams: it's sh!t or bust for them! Orcs, Chaos and Nurgle are ranked exactly the same under both systems. Skaven are considered an AG team due to the gutters, imo. The team is nothing without them. Lizards are a hybrid team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Etheric Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's worth pointing out that since there are 23 teams and I am only 95% confident then one of them is likely to be wrong Been trying to get my head around what the error bars actually mean in this context anyway. If you were to play an infinite amount of games with the same proportion of the high elf games played by pidpad etc, with the same TV differences and with the same proportions of race matchups then you would expect with 95% confidence the high elf teams to win between (roughly 55 and 60% of the games). The point being you have to be careful about precisely which distribution you think you are sampling when you post those error bars. Some possible explanations for the data then 1/ High Elves are overpowered 2/ A high proportion of the High Elf coaches are good coaches 3/ High elves are particularly effective against the more common teams in the occ (orcs, chaos, dark elf, nurgle) 4/ High elves can obtain and maintain a TV advantage vs other teams. 5/ A high proportion of the high elf games are played in a TV range where high elves are particularly effective I would suggest it is a big chunk of 2 and a bit of 3 (and 4 at lower TV). Maybe I should get (a) high (elf team) if I lose my wood (elf team to injury) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dode Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Absolutely. This is valid for OCC only, and I'm not pretending that it's some sort of statement about the tiers for teams overall. The data from FOL, for example, is completely different. The coaches will make a big difference in as small an environment as this one, I believe. I'm not so sure the TV differences make such a big difference as a confound: given the lifecycle of a team the sample can probably be considered a random selection of the "all games ever" population as far as TV goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Pidpad Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 My opinions/observations on/of High Elves: I think they're the strongest elf team at high TV, as they have the best base stats. Same reason why dwarfs fall off at high tv, crappy base stats. Orcs being the worst matchup for High Elves in my book. Nurgle is oddly enough a good matchup (unless they have leaping ag5 monsters...) I had a fairly high TV (once I got to 12 players, that is, having 3 deaths during the first 2 games didn't get me there quickly) and more often than not gave my opponent handicap. Elves (and skaven) can really really utilize the wizard, especially against slower teams. Lizards can do this as well, but less good (ag3, no sure hands). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards 4 3 3 2 4 2 2
Doomy77 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lizards aren't an AGI team, nor are they truly bashy. They're a hybrid of pitch control and raw speed. It's all about the 3-1 rule and the fact nothing is less than MA6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards 4
Juriel Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 What Doomy means is that Lizards = love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lebe666 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Curious no one mentioning the high % of the necromantic... clear sign that the coaches that use them have an effect on stats... few necro and between Narly, Juriel and others on paper it looks better than they really handle in high level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juriel Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 There's been around 15 Necro for a good while now. This is the first season in a while that they dip below 10. Just a few high-performing teams shouldn't swing stuff too much. Necro as a team is very good. A bit limited, overall, but if not checked, they can have their run of the pitch. I think what limits Necro performance in the higher tiers is that losing a skilled positional hits them very hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pidpad Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What I've found when playing Necro is that they are very very good until you reach high TVs where they are somewhat "meh", unless you have Juriels doggies. Starting 11 is very good, reserves not so, as Juriel says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards 4 3 3 2 4 2 2
bjj hero Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Aren't everyones reserves a bit shit? That's why they don't get to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
jamesfarrell129 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 WTF are reserves? I don't think that in 5 seasons with (wood and pro) elves I ever had more than 11 players on my roster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
humbe Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 There's too little data for statistics to be accurate.. Whomever wins most in tier 3-6 doesn't tell you who wins the most in tier 1. I'm not contesting that fast/agility teams may be favorites in tier 1, but to win tier 1 you must first get there.. From my impression, getting there is easier with a high survival team.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Juriel Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Aren't everyones reserves a bit shit? That's why they don't get to start. There's a big gulf between what plays a Zombie vs a DE line-elf can perform. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baalz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The thing that sticks out the most for me, is that norse is below UWD? //Baalz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baalz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 There's too little data for statistics to be accurate.. Whomever wins most in tier 3-6 doesn't tell you who wins the most in tier 1. I'm not contesting that fast/agility teams may be favorites in tier 1, but to win tier 1 you must first get there.. From my impression, getting there is easier with a high survival team.. Sure getting to div 1 isn´t easy. But any team that resides in div 2 will get hurt. i have some experience of that. Both Nurgle and Chaos could survived 4 season in div 2. After that your team are in a rather messy state leaving any chance for the title low/gone A elf team has a bigger shot at a Swift divsion 2 stay. Going up or getting retired //Baalz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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